Friday, November 5, 2010
I remember I was at the weigh in for Lennox Lewis’s fight with David Tua, and I had traveled from Australia, with big hopes for “The Tuaman” to do some serious damage with his left hook to the Englishman’s jaw. With high hopes beaming, i followed team Tua into the negotiations room, to listen to the to-ing and fro ing of each camps conditions of the fight, for the following day. When everything was agreed, we continued through to the media centre, and I asked the Tua camp, “what is your plan of attack, and do you have a plan B. Plan A was as expected, “hit him as hard as we can with the left hook, to knock that fucker out” Plan B was a bit of a worry, “hit him square in the balls” As I left to go and talk with Lewis’s team, all I could hear was Lennox’s people saying to him, “ain’t nothing, but a party.” They were right.
That little anecdote brings me to this fight between Margarito and Pacquiao. It seems to me that there is no plan B, from Team Margarito, just what we expect from the 3 time world champion. If we know whats coming, you can be sure Team Pacquaio know.
What’s coming is, Margarito will throw over a thousand punches. [whether he lands them, is debatable.] Margarito will come to fight, and will come to win. Margarito is confident of beating a smaller man, and Margarito knows he has had the best training camp ever.
Here is my analysis of what i see in both champions.
* speed of hand, foot and body.
* Big fight experience.
* southpaw stance. [ Margarito losses from southpaws, Paul Williams, Daniel Santos, Rodney Jones
* fighting at catchweight.[ 150ibs]
* has beaten, out boxed fighters with long reach, in Dela Hoya, and Clottey.
* speed. [key to winning this fight]
* Has been knocked out to the head and body.
* Smaller 5’6 170cm reach to Margaritos 185cm
* Tends to leave himself open to the punch. [his defence is his offence]
* Will be around 6 pounds lighter than Margarito on fight night.
* Coming close to end of his career/ thoughts of retirement.?
* Bigger body, and height 5’11
* Longer reach
* Good jab
* Good long right hand
* Good uppercut
* Confidence in himself
* Good body puncher
* Throws volumes of punches
* He knows this is his chance of a lifetime.
* Knocked out tko 9 from Mosley [ only stoppage tko at 147]
* Can be out boxed
* Slow to react.
* Methodical and predictable combinations
* Drops his left hand too low
* Not great fighting southpaws.
With this fight just a week away, the work has been done. Pacquiao has, like always trained to fight the best he can, and Margarito has thanked his lucky stars that he has been given this opportunity, and has left no stone unturned, to make the most of the chance he has been given. Margarito wont change the way he fights, not now, not ever.
MY ANALYSIS WRAP UP.
Margarito will come out with the long jab, trying to set up the long right hand power punch, trying to push Pacquiao backwards to the ropes, to then throw as many hooks and body shots in, followed by his big uppercut. If he is successful, and Pacquiao plays along trying to get in close, then the man from Tijuana will give Pacquiao big problems. The body shot is what Margarito has been training for.
Easier said than done.
I see Pacquiao using his speed, and footwork and angles, in and away, throwing hooks all night, to open up Margarito to drop his left hand, so Pacquiao can land his right hand all night long, while peppering Margarito with lefts, and his own body shots, to slow down, anything Margarito has left in the final stages of the fight. If Pacquiao does this, he could win by tko in the 11th round. Should be a great fight for the fans.